Australia may increase its rapeseed exports to the EU and China amid supply issues from Ukraine

Australia could strengthen its position in the global canola market as demand from China and the EU grows amid tighter Canadian supplies and export disruptions in Ukraine. According to Lachstock Consulting, the global canola and rapeseed balance has tightened over the past month despite softer futures prices.

China is already stepping up purchases of Australian canola. In June, it became the largest buyer, importing 120.3 thsd tons, twice as much as in May. Shipments to China reached 596.1 thsd tons in October-June. Further demand could be supported by a tightening Canadian balance, as hot and dry weather has reduced yield potential and the country’s 2026/27 export forecast has fallen to 7.6 mln tons.

Europe remains the largest market for Australian canola. In the first nine months of the season, Belgium purchased 931 thsd tons and Germany 681 thsd tons. Weaker rapeseed crop prospects in Germany and logistics problems are providing additional support to import demand: low water levels on the Rhine and Moselle have reportedly reduced barge loads from the usual 2.5–3 thsd tons to just 300–400 tons.

Meanwhile, Ukraine’s larger rapeseed crop has so far failed to generate the expected pressure on the global market due to Black Sea logistics disruptions. Ukraine exported only 19 thsd tons of rapeseed in July, compared with 143 thsd tons a year earlier, while seaborne shipments have effectively been suspended, forcing more volumes onto costly and congested overland routes. EU rapeseed imports from July 1 to August 2 also fell to 365 thsd tons from 906 thsd tons a year earlier.

Australia exported a total of 4.49 mln tons of canola in October-June, compared with 4.95 mln tons in the same period of the previous season. Lachstock expects a large Australian crop to put pressure on domestic basis levels, but the tight global balance, supply disruptions in Ukraine and Europe, and potentially stronger Chinese buying continue to support Australia’s export outlook.

Tags: Australia, Ukraine, China, export, canola, EU, rapeseed