USDA cuts EU oilseed production forecast for 2026/27

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has lowered its forecast for oilseed production in the European Union in the 2026/27 marketing year due to the negative impact of high temperatures and drought on yields across Western and Central Europe. According to the revised estimate, total oilseed production is projected at 32.25 mln tons, compared with 32.33 mln tons in the previous season. Meanwhile, planted area increased from 11.73 mln ha to 12.51 mln ha, but unfavorable weather conditions offset the benefits of the expansion. In some regions, prolonged heat and moisture shortages resulted in complete crop losses in certain areas.

Rapeseed was the most severely affected among the major oilseed crops. According to USDA, EU rapeseed production in 2026/27 is expected to decline by approximately 5% to 19.7 mln tons, compared with 20.7 mln tons a year earlier. The main reasons were dry conditions and high temperatures, which negatively affected crop development and yields in several European countries.

Sunflower seed production was also affected by unfavorable weather conditions, with particularly significant crop losses recorded in Hungary. As a result, USDA lowered its previous EU sunflower seed production estimate to 9.85 mln tons. However, this figure remains more than 12% above the previous season’s level. Year-on-year production increases are expected in most EU member states, including Romania, Bulgaria, Spain, Poland, Germany, Czechia and Greece.

Soybean production in the European Union was also affected by heat and insufficient soil moisture, resulting in lower yields in some regions. Despite the expansion of total oilseed acreage, weather-related risks are limiting the potential for increased domestic production. Against this backdrop, USDA forecasts a 7% increase in EU oilseed imports in 2026/27 to meet domestic demand.

Meanwhile, EU oilseed crushing volumes could exceed USDA’s previous April forecasts. Crushing activity is expected to benefit from favorable processing margins and high vegetable oil prices. The largest upward revisions to crushing forecasts are expected for rapeseed and sunflower seed. Thus, despite lower domestic production estimates, the European processing industry could increase output through higher imports of raw materials.

Tags: USDA, EU, oilseeds