USDA analysts have lowered the forecast for the wheat harvest in Ukraine by 1.1 mln tons

USDA has released its forecast for harvest, exports and ending stocks for major wheat producers for the upcoming 2026/27 marketing year.

The forecast for world wheat production in MY 2026/27 is 819.06 million tons (-24.78 million tons compared to MY 2025/26). The USDA forecasts world wheat exports at 211.7 million tons (-11.98 million tons). The forecast for world wheat ending stocks is 275.04 million tons (-4.17 million tons).

The main driver of the 2026/27 balance was the US market. USDA forecasts a wheat harvest of 42.49 million tons — minus 11.5 million tons compared to the current season and the lowest figure since 1972. The reasons were the reduction in sown areas and problems with winter wheat in Kansas and neighboring states. The harvest also turned out to be almost 5 million tons lower than analysts’ expectations, and ending stocks were 1.5 million tons lower than forecasts.

The estimate of the wheat harvest in Ukraine for the new season is 23 million tons (-1.1 million tons), exports will be at the level of 13 million tons (+0.5 million tons), ending stocks are 4.53 million tons (+0.9 million tons).

The forecast of the wheat harvest for the USA is 42.49 million tons (-11.61 million tons), the estimate of exports is currently 21.09 million tons (-3.68 million tons), ending stocks are 20.74 million tons (-4.7 million tons).

Forecast for the main wheat exporters for the MY 2026/27:

USDA analysts forecast wheat production in China in MY 2026/27 at 141 million tons (+0.93 million tons), import estimate — 6 million tons (at the level of 2025/26 MY), ending stocks — 120.85 million tons (-2 million tons).

Tags: Russia, China, EU, Canada, wheat, USA, Argentina, crop forecast, Australia, Ukraine