US wheat market outlook remains bearish

The outlook for the U.S. wheat market is bearish, according to Mike O’Dea, a risk management consultant with Stone X. The primary factor driving this pessimism is the low price of corn, which is impacting the price spread between wheat and corn. “It’s hard to keep that wheat-corn spread too wide,” O’Dea noted, highlighting the challenges posed by market competition.

O’Dea explained that the core issue is a supply and demand imbalance. “We have plenty of supply, whether it’s winter or spring wheat. We just need more demand. Demand is the biggest problem in this market,” he said. The surplus of wheat in the U.S. market is creating difficulties for farmers facing low prices and limited demand.

However, O’Dea pointed out that the Trump administration’s efforts to address trade disparities have led to some unexpected export deals. “Last week, Bangladesh committed to buying 700,000 tons of U.S. feed wheat, which shouldn’t happen. Indonesia has been buying some winter and soft white wheat,” he said. He believes that trade agreements and geopolitical influence in Africa could boost overall demand for U.S. wheat.

This surge in demand could provide the price rebound farmers need heading into winter, O’Dea suggested. He advised farmers to seek aggressive opportunities to sell both old and new crop. O’Dea shared these insights during the 2025 Illinois Wheat Forum in Greenville.

Tags: prices, wheat, USA