US farmers massively ignore USDA surveys due to distrust in the reports

American farmers are increasingly refusing to participate in surveys of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) due to distrust in government statistics. This calls into question the accuracy of key agricultural forecasts and increases volatility in the grain market. This is reported by Bloomberg.

According to the USDA, only 36% of 73.8 thousand farms participated in the March survey on future crops. For comparison, in 2018 the response rate was about 60%.

Farmers explain this by the reluctance to share data for reports, which, in their opinion, often work against them, especially in the conditions of large harvests in recent years, which put pressure on agricultural prices. Some producers also consider the surveys too complicated and time-consuming.

“I don’t trust the data, I don’t trust the process, and I don’t trust their employees,” said Iowa farmer Ben Rinshe.

The USDA’s January report, in which the agency unexpectedly raised its U.S. corn crop forecast by 1.6% to a record 17.021 billion bushels, was particularly divisive. The market had been expecting a lower estimate, so Chicago corn futures fell sharply after the report was released.

“When the USDA gets it so wrong without a clear explanation, it undermines the credibility of future reports. You have to trust the information you get. If you can’t trust it, why are you doing these reports at all?” said Michigan farmer Darin LaBar, one of 240 respondents to the agency’s survey on improving data collection.

Montana farmer Sarah Degn said she has little faith in the reports because she knows that producers — including herself — often fill them out in a hurry and distracted by other farm chores. Few, she said, have the time to “sit down and pick up” the spreadsheets and records needed to provide accurate answers.

“When you’re in a hurry, you’re just trying to remember numbers from memory. That’s why I’ve always had doubts about the accuracy of these data,” Degn said.

Market participants fear that the decline in farmer participation in surveys could degrade the quality of USDA data, which is traditionally considered a benchmark for the global agricultural market. This, in turn, could lead to even greater volatility in grain prices.

The USDA said it is working to increase response rates and maintain statistical accuracy. One possible solution in the department is the “One Farmer, One File” program, which should simplify data collection and partially automate the completion of surveys.

Tags: USA, crop forecast, USDA Report