Concerns about the new EU rapeseed crop increase due to mixed weather conditions

Rapeseed futures on Euronext regained support following the release of the May MARS bulletin, which stated that the main concerns for the European region are currently linked to a persistent precipitation deficit in Central, Eastern, and Northern Europe, as well as late frosts that are locally affecting rapeseed crops. Against this backdrop, the latest report lowered the EU yield estimate for the new crop to 3.19 tonnes per hectare (-2% month-on-month; -5% year-on-year; unchanged compared to the 5-year average), while exchange prices briefly surged to a 10-day high for the nearby contract.

At the end of April and the beginning of May, temperatures in parts of the EU fell below -5°C. In several regions, expected yields dropped below the five-year average, although some recovery is still possible.

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA), meanwhile, estimates the EU’s total production potential for the new crop at 20.7 million tonnes (+0.2 million tonnes compared to the 2025/26 season).

At the same time, forecasts for other major exporters remain mixed: Australia is projected at only 6.8 million tonnes (-0.9 million tonnes), while Canada is expected to remain unchanged at 22 million tonnes. This indicates a lack of significant global production growth among key exporters, which could strengthen the position of alternative suppliers.

Tags: EU, prices, rapeseed, crop forecast