US durum market tightens after 23% drop in crop

The 2026 US durum wheat crop is estimated at 66 mln bushels, down 23% from a year earlier. Total 2026/27 supplies are projected to fall to 145 mln bushels from 162 mln a year earlier, while carryover stocks are forecast at 26 mln bushels.

With a smaller crop, durum prices are recovering relative to hard red spring wheat, narrowing the unusual discount seen during the summer. Stronger domestic demand and potentially higher exports to Europe could provide additional support to the market.

Grain quality is another concern. Preliminary US Wheat Associates data show average protein content at 14.9%, while hard vitreous amber kernels declined to 78% from 84% last year and a five-year average of 86%.

Variable quality means the actual supply of durum meeting preferred milling specifications could be tighter than the overall crop estimate suggests. Some regions are reporting lower test weights, reduced kernel vitreousness and quality problems following rain during harvest.

Availability is also being limited by farmers’ reluctance to sell durum at current prices. Producers in North Dakota and Montana have sufficient storage capacity and may hold grain in expectation of better market conditions, adding further tightness to the market.

Tags: prices, USA, durum, harvest