Ukrainian crushers have largely covered their rapeseed needs through October

Ukraine’s rapeseed market is becoming increasingly disconnected from global price trends as Russian attacks have effectively halted operations at the country’s deep-sea ports. Export flows are shifting to western border crossings, while the domestic market remains under pressure from abundant supplies.

According to analysts at the PUSK agricultural cooperative, rapeseed remains the most profitable early-season crop, but domestic prices are expected to continue declining despite stronger Euronext futures. Unlike in previous seasons, gains on the European exchange are no longer being fully reflected in Ukraine’s CPT market.

Earlier this week, some processors were buying large lots of rapeseed with 46% oil content at UAH 24,000/t, but indicative prices have already fallen to UAH 23,000–23,500/t. Export demand at the ports remained around $580/t for rapeseed with 44% oil content, although analysts warn that domestic purchase prices could decline to UAH 21,000–22,000/t.

At the same time, major agricultural companies continue to secure export contracts through Ukraine’s western borders. Contracts for September–October deliveries were recently signed at $575–585/t (44% oil content), although analysts believe prices on this route could also soften once demand for those shipment windows is satisfied.

Domestic processing is also adding pressure to the market. Analysts say Ukrainian oilseed crushers have already covered most of their rapeseed requirements through October and therefore have little incentive to maintain high procurement prices. August crushing volumes, initially expected at 100–150 thsd tons, are now estimated at 200–250 thsd tons, with some market participants expecting volumes to reach 300 thsd tons.

Tags: prices, rapeseed, Ukraine, export