Ukraine’s sunflower oil exports may fall by 50%, Russia’s by up to 38%

Ukraine and Russia, two key suppliers of sunflower oil to the global market, may sharply reduce exports in MY 2026/27 due to logistics disruptions and problems affecting port infrastructure. According to estimates presented by market participants at the Globoil conference in Mumbai, Ukraine’s shipments in October-March may be around 50% below normal levels, while Russian exports could fall by 25-38% year-on-year.

Ukraine is expected to export around 300 thsd tons of sunflower oil per month during this period. Despite some improvement in logistics in October compared with September, shipments are still expected to remain well below normal levels. India may import around 700 thsd tons of Ukrainian sunflower oil in MY 2026/27, while Europe is expected to remain the main destination market.

Russia may export 250-300 thsd tons of sunflower oil per month in October-March, compared with around 400 thsd tons a year earlier, according to Anton Gritsay, executive director of Russian producer EFKO. However, this estimate comes directly from one of Russia’s largest vegetable oil producers and exporters and should therefore be treated with caution, as the forecast may prove more optimistic than actual export dynamics. Russian exporters plan to redirect part of their flows through the Baltic and Caspian seas, as well as by rail to China.

A simultaneous decline in shipments from Ukraine and Russia could significantly tighten sunflower oil supply on the global market. The two countries traditionally account for the bulk of global exports of the commodity, making it difficult for other suppliers to quickly compensate for lost Black Sea volumes. This may support high sunflower oil prices and encourage some importers to switch to soybean and palm oil.

The strongest impact may be felt by major importers, particularly India, Turkey and EU countries. India remains one of the largest buyers of Black Sea sunflower oil, and lower supplies amid strong demand could intensify competition for available volumes. In this case, higher sunflower oil prices could also spill over into other segments of the global vegetable oil market.

Tags: Ukraine, Russia, sunflower oil, export, Black Sea region, restrictions, war