Ukraine’s soybean and rapeseed duty: is the market ready to step back

Article author:

Svitlana Kupreeva

Oilseed Market Analyst

The introduction of a 10% export duty significantly changed the structure of soybean and rapeseed use in Ukraine in MY 2025/26. Raw seed exports declined, a much larger share of the crop was redirected to domestic crushing, while exports of oil and meal reached record levels. Overall, the duty achieved its main objective by encouraging a shift from raw material exports toward higher value-added processed products.

At the same time, the results of one season do not guarantee that this model will remain sustainable. Crushing economics depend not only on access to raw materials but also on margins, energy and financing costs and, most importantly, the ability to export oil and meal reliably. Following disruptions to maritime port operations, logistics became the main market constraint, affecting both raw seed exporters and crushers.

The current discussion about a moratorium on export duties is primarily a response to this logistics shock. A full return to unrestricted raw seed exports could support short-term liquidity but would also weaken crushers’ positions. A more balanced solution could therefore be a flexible mechanism allowing the duty to be temporarily suspended or restored depending on market and logistics conditions. Under current conditions, however, market stability increasingly depends not on the duty itself but on port operations and the ability to export both raw materials and processed products.

Full version of the article is available to subscribers of the Weekly  ‘BLACK SEA & DANUBE OILSEED REPORT’ by UkrAgroConsult.

Request a free a sample report and apply for subscription here.

Be confident with your business and trade strategy based on professional analysis and forecasts of the Black Sea agri market.

Tags: export duty, meal, Ukraine, export, soybean, Oil, rapeseed, logistics