USDA keeps Kazakhstan wheat export forecast at 9.5 mln tons

USDA kept its forecast for Kazakhstan’s wheat exports in 2026/27 unchanged at 9.5 mln tons in its October outlook. The production forecast was also maintained at 15 mln tons, while imports were left at 1.5 mln tons.

In September, USDA had already lowered Kazakhstan’s wheat export forecast from 10 mln to 9.5 mln tons and cut production from 16 mln to 15 mln tons. At the same time, the import estimate was raised to 1.5 mln tons from 700 thsd tons projected in August.

Kazakhstan is meanwhile increasing actual grain shipments by rail. In January–September 2026, 10.8 mln tons of grain were transported by rail, up 12% year-on-year. Export shipments increased by 14% to 8.4 mln tons.

The largest volumes went to Central Asian countries, with shipments reaching 5.5 mln tons, up 33% year-on-year. Uzbekistan received 4.11 mln tons of grain, up 44%, while deliveries to Tajikistan rose 16% to 1.18 mln tons.

Shipments on other routes are also growing rapidly. Rail grain exports to China increased by 54% to 750 thsd tons, while deliveries to Afghanistan surged 4.3-fold to 762 thsd tons. This makes Afghanistan one of the fastest-growing destinations for Kazakhstan’s grain exports.

Tags: Kazakhstan, export, wheat