Ukraine’s oilseed S&D balances become more realistic, logistics remains decisive

Article author:

Svitlana Kupreeva

Oilseed Market Analyst

The 2026/27 season is characterized by a recovery in oilseed production, while increasing logistics risks are limiting opportunities to market the crop. In Ukraine, oilseed production is expected to increase by 11% to 21.5 mln tones. At the same time, disruptions to maritime exports are forcing a reassessment of crushing and export prospects. Under the current scenario, the market could end the season with substantial carryover stocks of sunflower seed and soybeans.

The sunflower complex remains the most vulnerable segment due to its strong dependence on large-scale sunflower oil and meal exports. Shipment restrictions are limiting crushing capacity utilization, weakening demand for sunflower seed and putting pressure on domestic prices. Recovering sunflower production across the region is also intensifying competition in export markets.

Despite deteriorating yields, soybeans maintain relatively stable market positions thanks to high crushing margins. However, restrictions on soybean and meal exports create risks of stock accumulation and could constrain further growth in processing.

The rapeseed complex has the most favorable prospects among the major oilseed crops. Early harvesting, diversified marketing channels and stable European demand reduce its dependence on Black Sea logistics. Record crushing volumes and exports of rapeseed oil and meal confirm Ukraine’s strengthening integration into the European market.

The shift toward European export markets is supporting demand for Ukrainian rapeseed and soybean oils, while sunflower oil remains the most dependent on maritime transportation. Further crushing prospects will primarily be determined by the availability and cost of export routes.

The main risk of the season is not a shortage of raw materials but limited opportunities to process and market them. Without logistics stabilization, the recovery in production could lead to stock accumulation, higher storage costs and increasing price pressure on producers.

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Tags: Ukraine, soybean, oilseeds, sunseed, rapeseed, logistics, edible oils