Ukraine’s grain export logistics costs rise by $50/t amid port shutdowns

Logistics costs for Ukrainian grain exports have increased by around $50/t since Black Sea port operations were halted. Additional costs could eventually rise to $70/t compared with levels before port shipments were suspended, according to Agriculture Minister Taras Vysotskyi.

Due to restrictions on seaborne exports, Ukraine is increasingly redirecting cargoes to alternative routes, including rail, road and the Danube. However, their capacity is insufficient to fully replace Black Sea ports. According to the Agriculture Ministry, even under favorable conditions, these routes can handle only 45–50% of Ukraine’s annual agricultural exports.

One option is to expand the use of the EU Solidarity Lanes. Ukraine is also working to increase rail shipments through neighboring countries. In particular, a route through Moldova to Romania’s Port of Constanta is being considered, with Ukraine negotiating lower transit tariffs.

Alternative logistics are also constrained by low water levels on the Danube, which limit grain shipments by barge. At the same time, rail and road transportation is more expensive than traditional seaborne exports, putting additional pressure on domestic purchase prices and Ukrainian farmers’ revenues.

Due to disruptions to seaborne shipments, Ukraine has already cut its grain export forecast for 2026/27 by 12% to 38–40 mln tons. According to the National Bank of Ukraine, restrictions on seaport operations in the second half of the year could cost the country more than $2 bln in lost export revenues.

Tags: EU, Ukraine, grain