Ukraine does not expect significant losses from a possible 50% Israeli tariff on Black Sea feed wheat

A potential introduction of a 50% tariff by Israel on feed wheat from the Black Sea region is unlikely to become a systemic blow to Ukraine’s agricultural exports, but it may signal a new stage in the politicisation of global grain trade. The main risk currently falls on Russian suppliers, while for Ukraine the key challenge remains intensifying competition for traditional export markets in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA).

This was reported to Delo.ua by Maksym Kharchenko, grain and oilseed market analyst at UkrAgroConsult.

It was previously reported that Israel is considering introducing a 50% import tariff on feed wheat from the Black Sea region. The measure is aimed at favouring U.S. suppliers under a new trade agreement and abolishing duty-free quotas for other countries. April was initially mentioned as a possible implementation date, but no final decision has been made.

According to available information, the potential 50% Israeli tariff primarily targets feed wheat from the Black Sea region rather than all feed grains, Kharchenko noted. Previous reports also indicated that corn and barley are likely to be excluded from these restrictions. Therefore, the direct impact on Ukraine in the wheat segment should remain limited, as the main risk concerns Russia, which accounts for a significant share of Israel’s feed wheat imports, the analyst explained.

“For Ukraine, this topic is more of a signal of increasing politicisation of grain trade and possible reshaping of regional flows rather than a systemic export risk,” Kharchenko said.

If the restrictions were hypothetically expanded to a broader range of feed grains, the impact on Ukraine would be more noticeable, primarily in the corn segment. “Israel is a noticeable but not critical destination for Ukrainian corn: according to our data, shipments to this market in 2025/26 MY amounted to around 630 thousand tonnes,” the analyst said.

At the same time, Ukraine maintains an active presence in Mediterranean and MENA markets (Middle East and North Africa), so any potential decline in shipments to Israel could be partially offset by increased sales to Turkey, North Africa, Southern Europe and other price-sensitive destinations. No systemic impact is expected, although it may locally pressure trader margins and logistics costs, the expert noted.

The decision itself will not significantly affect Ukraine’s position in the global agricultural market. “Ukraine remains one of the key grain exporters, and the loss or restriction of a single destination usually does not undermine its global role but rather leads to a redistribution of trade flows,” Kharchenko explained.

A greater risk for Ukraine is not the Israeli tariff itself, but the broader trend of trade protectionism, political agreements between importers and specific suppliers, and increasing difficulties in accessing traditional markets.

Tags: Russia, Black Sea region, wheat, Israel, restrictions, Ukraine