Sharp decline in corn quotes in Chicago lowers export prices in Ukraine

The gradual decline in oil prices (-5.2% per week, -13.5% per two weeks) and improved conditions for corn planting in the US continue to put pressure on corn quotes in Chicago, which fell by 9.2% per month, losing the speculative growth caused by the war with Iran and weather factors.

During the week, July corn futures in Chicago fell 4.2% to $174.8/t (-9.2% month-on-month) and are trading 5.2% lower than a year ago, while December futures fell 2.9% to $186/t (-6.7% month-on-month).

According to NASS Crop Progress, as of May 31, 93% of the planned area has been sown with corn (92% on average for the past 5 years), and 76% of the area has been planted (74% on average). Currently, 67% of the corn crop is in good or excellent condition (69% last year), slightly below the analysts’ estimate of 70%.

According to USDA data, in the first 9 months of the MY 2025/26, corn exports from the US amounted to 61.94 million tons, which is 27.3% higher than last year’s pace, so it is quite realistic to reach the USDA’s forecast of 83.8 million tons by the end of the season.

Favorable weather in the US, Europe, and Ukraine is reducing speculative pressure on new crop prices.

Demand for corn in Ukrainian ports from exporters remains, but export demand prices decreased by 150-200 UAH/t to 11,400-11,450 UAH/t or $225-228/t with delivery to Black Sea ports over the week.

There is an increase in demand prices for corn delivered to the western border, where the price is 200-205 €/t FCA-euro wagons, which is equivalent to prices delivered to the port minus transshipment.

Corn exports from Ukraine for the 30 days of May amounted to 2.1 million tons (compared to 1.92 million tons in May 2025), and in total in the MY 2025/26 reached 19.1 million tons (20.47 million tons last year). The main buyers in May remained Turkey – 670 thousand tons, Italy – 321 thousand tons, the Netherlands – 239 thousand tons, Israel – 116 thousand tons, Korea – 104.2 thousand tons.

Corn supply from farmers has increased slightly, but amid lower purchase prices, farmers have again limited sales, as prices for the new corn crop in the US are $12/t higher, so it is expected that demand prices for the old crop will also continue to increase.

Tags: Ukraine, corn, prices