Expana lowers EU rapeseed production forecast

Analytical firm Expana has reduced its forecast for rapeseed production in the European Union for the 2026/27 marketing year. The estimate was cut by 300,000 tonnes to 20.3 million tonnes, down from 20.6 million tonnes projected a month earlier.

The downward revision signals a tightening balance in the rapeseed market, which has already supported prices for related processing products. In particular, the rapeseed meal market has reacted to expectations of tighter raw material availability, with traders pricing in reduced supply.

On the Chinese market, rapeseed meal futures also responded with gains: the most active contract closed at 2,301 yuan/tonne, up by 10 yuan. Open interest exceeded 1 million contracts, indicating continued expectations of supply constraints and supportive price dynamics.

Additional pressure on EU rapeseed supply may also support rapeseed oil prices, as lower seed availability increases processing costs. As a result, the overall price outlook for rapeseed oil remains moderately positive.

Analysts note that even relatively small adjustments in EU production forecasts can influence global oilseed balances, intensifying competition among major exporting regions and supporting processed product prices.

Tags: EU, rapeseed, crop forecast