U.S. corn, soybean yields to rise, USDA reports

The trade’s expectation of higher production estimates is confirmed.

The U.S. corn, soybean yields jump slightly as the trade expected, according to the USDA’s September Crop Production and Supply/Demand Reports Friday.

As a result, the CME Group’s corn and soybean markets initially reacted negatively and then turned positive.

At the close, the Dec. corn futures finished 7 1/2¢ higher at $5.17 3/4. March futures closed 7 1/4¢ higher at $5.26 3/4. May corn futures settled 6 1/2¢ higher at $5.31.

November soybean futures ended 16¢ higher at $12.86.

Jan. soybean futures settled 16¢ higher at $12.94. March soybean futures closed 15 1/2¢ higher at $12.99.

Dec. wheat futures closed 3 3/4¢ lower at $6.88.


Dec. soymeal futures finished $4.60 per short ton higher at $342.50.

Dec. soy oil futures closed $0.20 lower at 55.99¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is 1.57 higher (+2.30%) at $69.71. The U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 79 points lower (-0.23%) at 34,799 points.

U.S. 2021/22 crop production

In its report, the USDA pegged the U.S. corn production at 14.99 billion bushels vs. the trade’s expectation of 14.9 billion and the previous estimate of 14.75 billion bushels.

The U.S. corn yield average was pegged at 176.3 bushels per acre vs. the trade’s expectation of 175 bushels per acre and the USDA’s previous estimate of 174.6.

For soybeans, the USDA pegged output at 4.37 billion bushels vs. the trade’s expectation of 4.3 billion and the government’s August estimate of 4.33.

For yield, the soybean average is pegged at 50.6 bu./acre vs. the trade’s expectation of 50.4 bu./acre and the government’s previous estimate of 50.0.

2020/2021 U.S. ending stocks

For corn, the USDA pegged the U.S. old-crop ending stocks at 1.18 billion bushels vs. the trade estimate of 1.16 billion bushels and the USDA’s August estimate of 1.11 billion.

For soybeans, the U.S. ending stocks were 175 million bushels vs. the August estimate of 160 million bushels. The trade expected the USDA to print 166 million bushels today.

2021/2022 U.S. ending stocks

For corn, the USDA pegged the U.S. new-crop ending stocks at 1.40 billion bushels vs. the trade estimate of 1.3 billion bushels and the August estimate of 1.24 billion bushels.

For soybeans, the U.S. ending stocks were 185 million bushels vs. the trade that expected the USDA to print 190 million bushels today. In August, the USDA’s estimate was 155 million.

In its report, the USDA pegged the U.S. wheat ending stocks at 615 million bushels vs. the trade’s expectation of 616 million and compared with the August estimate of 627 million bushels.

2021/2022 world ending stocks

On Friday, the USDA pegged the world’s corn ending stocks at 297.6 mmt. vs. the trade’s expectation of 286.0 mmt. and the USDA’s August estimate of 284.0 mmt.

For soybeans, the world ending stocks are estimated at 98.9 mmt. vs. the trade’s expectation of 96.8 mmt. and the USDA’s August estimate of 96.2 mmt.

For wheat, the USDA pegged world ending stocks at 283.2 mmt. vs. the trade’s expectation of 279.0 mmt. and the USDA’s previous estimate of 279.1 mmt.

U.S. harvested acreage

In its report, the USDA pegged the U.S. 2021 corn harvested acreage at 85.08 million vs. the trade’s expectation of 85.0 and the NASS August estimate of 84.4 million.

For soybeans, the U.S. 2021 acreage is pegged at 86.4 million vs. the trade’s expectation of 86.7 and the NASS’s August estimate of 86.7 million.

2020/2021 world crop production

On Thursday, the USDA pegged the 2020/2021 Brazilian soybean production at 137.0 mmt vs. the USDA’s estimate last month of 137.0 mmt.

For corn, Brazil’s output is seen at 87.0 mmt. vs. the trade’s expectation of 92.0 mmt. and the USDA’s July estimate of 93.0 mmt.

For Argentina’s soybean output, the USDA pegged its crop at 46.0 mmt. vs. the USDA’s July estimate of 46.5 mmt.

Argentina’s 2020/2021 corn crop is pegged at 48.5  mmt vs. the USDA’s previous estimate of 48.5 mmt.

Trade reaction

Sal Gilbertie, Teucrium Trading, say that this report was not a surprise to the trade.

“Today’s WASDE puts a heavy reliance on production and stock levels in China, which means the true amount of global inventories, especially of wheat and corn, are likely to be viewed with skepticism by the markets. Prices didn’t really react much to the increases in domestic U.S. inventories, corn acres, and yields, mostly because reported levels were widely anticipated beforehand,” Gilbertie says.

Jack Scoville, PRICE Futures Group, says that the USDA report has triggered a “sell the rumor and buy the fact” type trading day.

“The reports were bearish and the markets were lower after the reports came out.  But the market was anticipating a bearish report so the buying after the report came out has sent futures higher,” Scoville says.

Jason Roose, U.S. Commodities, says that today’s USDA crop report was different than the months in a market that was technically oversold.

“The numbers alone were price-negative in all categories. Production increased for both corn and soybeans, yield for both corn and soybeans increased from last month and a 4.3 bushel increase on corn from last year and slight increase on soybeans. Plus, world ending stocks also increased for corn, soybeans and wheat,” Roose says.

Roose added, “Late rains and mild weather have given us these potential better numbers. Volatility will still be a daily event with many factors and uncertainties ahead, direction of the dollar, actual yield reports, S.A. weather, and China’s demand, all will give us the next price support or resistance.”

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Tags: soybeans, US, crop, yield, corn, USDA