Turkey’s wheat imports could fall 56% amid Black Sea supply disruptions

Turkey’s wheat imports in the MY 2026/27 could decline by 56% to 2.8 mln tons, compared with 6.32 mln tons in the previous season. According to FAS USDA, the forecast was lowered from its June estimate of 4.5 mln tons due to escalating military tensions in the Black Sea and the virtual suspension of regular grain shipments from russia and Ukraine, Turkey’s two largest wheat suppliers. The Turkish government’s efforts to reduce substantial domestic grain stocks are also contributing to the decline in imports.

FAS USDA forecasts that Turkey’s wheat production could reach a record 23 mln tons in 2026/27, supported by favorable weather conditions during most of the growing season. The large harvest has contributed to the accumulation of significant government inventories, which exceeded 10 mln tons. To reduce these stocks, the Turkish Grain Board (TMO) began offering wheat from its reserves in September to flour and pasta exporters operating under the Inward Processing Regime.

In October, TMO also announced that it had made 5.5 mln tons of products available for sale through the Turkish Mercantile Exchange, allowing purchases by all categories of buyers. These measures aim to reduce excess inventories and provide domestic processors with raw materials. Increased wheat availability from government reserves is further limiting the country’s need for imported grain, particularly amid disruptions to maritime logistics in the Black Sea region.

Meanwhile, Turkey’s domestic wheat consumption is forecast by FAS USDA to increase by 4% in 2026/27 compared with the previous season. This is partly driven by higher demand for animal feed. Quality issues affecting the harvest in some regions are expected to increase the availability of feed wheat, encouraging greater use of the grain in livestock production and the compound feed industry.

Turkey’s exports of wheat and wheat products are also showing mixed trends. Total shipments declined by 14% in June–August 2026 compared with the same period of the previous season. Flour exports fell by 20% to 617 thsd tons, while pasta exports increased by 22% to 560 thsd tons. Further developments in Turkey’s grain market will depend on wheat product export opportunities, the pace of government stock sales and the restoration of stable grain shipments from the Black Sea region.

Tags: Turkey, Black Sea region, wheat, imports, logistics