Turkey’s olive harvest to rise 56%, but olive oil exports decline sharply

Turkey’s olive production could increase by 56% in the 2026/27 season, reaching 3.8 mln tons compared with 2.5 mln tons a year earlier. According to preliminary estimates from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK), the country is expecting one of its largest olive harvests on record, potentially matching the record level achieved in 2024. However, actual olive oil production will depend on the proportion of olives allocated to processing and their oil content. Despite favorable crop prospects, Turkish exporters are facing declining overseas sales and intensifying competition in international markets.

From January to September 2026, Turkey’s olive oil exports fell by 53% to 15.7 thsd tons, while export revenue declined by 48% to $82.1 mln. Total exports of olives and olive oil during the period dropped by 28% in both volume and value, reaching 87 thsd tons and $273 mln, respectively. Black olive shipments decreased by 14% to 48.1 thsd tons, while green olive exports fell by 19% to 14.4 thsd tons. Olive pomace oil exports also declined by 40% to 8.6 thsd tons.

The main challenges facing Turkish producers include high production costs, limited access to financing, trade barriers and increasing competition from other Mediterranean countries. In particular, strong olive harvests are expected in Spain, Italy and Greece, potentially adding pressure to global olive oil prices. According to USDA estimates, global olive oil production in the 2026/27 season will reach approximately 3.3 mln tons, with the European Union accounting for around 2.1 mln tons.

Against the backdrop of deteriorating export performance, Turkish producers are calling on the government to seek an easing of trade restrictions in key export markets. In particular, the Aegean Olive and Olive Oil Exporters’ Association is seeking the removal of the additional 12.5% US tariff on Turkish products. Turkey also aims to increase the existing EU duty-free olive oil import quota from 100 tons to at least 60 thsd tons. As part of free trade negotiations with the United Kingdom, the industry also hopes to secure duty-free access to the British market.

Despite its significant production potential, Turkey has lost part of its position in the global olive oil market in recent years. In the 2022/23 season, the country produced around 451 thsd tons of olive oil and exported approximately 150 thsd tons worth more than $700 mln. By contrast, olive oil exports fell to around 20 thsd tons in 2025/26, with export revenue totaling $105.7 mln. Under these conditions, even a substantial increase in the new season’s olive harvest does not guarantee a recovery in export earnings due to high costs, trade restrictions and the possibility of lower global prices.

Tags: Turkey, olive oil, olive