The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts an increase in Ukraine’s grain harvest against a backdrop of falling exports

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) raised its forecasts for Ukraine’s wheat and corn production in 2026/27 in its August report. At the same time, export forecasts for both crops were lowered, resulting in a significant increase in projected ending stocks.

Ukraine’s wheat production forecast was raised by 1.4 mln tons, from 24 mln to 25.4 mln tons. Meanwhile, the export forecast was cut from 14.5 mln to 13.5 mln tons. As a result, projected wheat ending stocks increased sharply from 2.53 mln to 4.8 mln tons.

USDA made an even larger revision to Ukraine’s corn balance. The production forecast was raised by 1.8 mln tons to 31.8 mln tons, compared with 30 mln tons projected in July. At the same time, the export forecast was reduced by 1 mln tons to 22 mln tons, while ending stocks were more than doubled from 2.06 mln to 4.86 mln tons.

Globally, USDA slightly lowered its 2026/27 wheat production forecast to 819.3 mln tons. Global exports are projected at 212.71 mln tons, while ending stocks are estimated at 273.25 mln tons. The EU wheat crop forecast was cut by 1.8 mln tons to 134.2 mln tons, while Canada’s was raised by 1 mln tons to 35 mln tons. Russia’s wheat export forecast was lowered by 1.5 mln tons to 46 mln tons.

Global corn production, meanwhile, is forecast at 1.299 bln tons, up 1.79 mln tons from the July estimate. USDA raised its U.S. corn production forecast to 406.75 mln tons and exports to 83.19 mln tons. At the same time, China’s corn import forecast was lowered from 6 mln to 5 mln tons, while its production estimate remained unchanged at 307 mln tons.

Tags: Ukraine, export, grain, wheat, harvesting