Thai chicken prices in Japan fall 25% amid growing competition from China

Prices for Thai frozen chicken in the Japanese market have declined by at least 25% since April 2026 amid growing competition from cheaper products from China and Brazil. According to S&P Global Energy Platts, prices for Thai frozen boneless chicken leg meat fell from 800–900 yen/kg in April to approximately 600 yen/kg ($3.80/kg) in October. Japanese importers are increasingly shifting toward more affordable products, putting additional pressure on Thai suppliers.

One of the main factors behind the shift in demand has been rising imports of processed chicken from China. In January–August 2026, Japan’s purchases of Chinese processed chicken increased by 22% year on year, while imports of processed chicken from Thailand rose by just 5%, and unprocessed chicken imports declined by 2%. Chinese karaage chicken is offered at $2,500–2,700/t CFR Japan, compared with approximately $4,500/t for similar Thai products. This price difference is encouraging Japanese food manufacturers and retailers to increase purchases of Chinese products.

Meanwhile, Brazil is intensifying competition in the frozen chicken segment. According to Platts, Thai boneless chicken leg meat is priced at least $1,100/t higher than comparable Brazilian products. As a result, some Japanese companies have started cutting cheaper Brazilian chicken legs in-house instead of purchasing ready-cut products from Thailand. Despite the price competition, Thai chicken maintains advantages in product quality and consistency. Meanwhile, poultry imports from China are restricted to heat-treated products, as raw poultry shipments to Japan remain prohibited under veterinary regulations.

According to S&P Global Energy CERA analysts, Thailand’s chicken exports could decline by 3.8% year on year in 2026. Shipments had already fallen by 6.6% in January–August. Production constraints, unfavorable weather conditions, growing competition from China and the easing of EU restrictions on Brazilian chicken imports are adding further pressure on Thai exporters. However, Thailand remains Japan’s largest supplier of processed poultry meat, meaning the current changes have not yet led to a significant shift in market shares.

Weaker demand and substantial frozen chicken inventories in Japan continue to weigh on international prices. As of October 28, Platts assessed chicken leg prices at $2,350/t CFR North Asia for November–December shipments, down 31% from the record high of $3,400/t in April. Meanwhile, China’s poultry meat production is forecast by analysts to increase by 8% year on year in 2026, supporting ample export supplies and continued competition in the Asian market.

Tags: China, chicken, Taiwan, Japan