Sunflower oil premium over soybean oil narrows to $205/t

The price premium of sunflower oil over soybean oil narrowed to $205/t in September 2026 from $265/t in January. The market is gradually shifting from the acute supply shortage seen at the start of the year toward a more balanced situation, supported by higher production in Argentina and normalized crushing in the EU.

In the first quarter, global sunflower oil stocks were 12% lower than a year earlier, supporting elevated prices and widening the premium over alternative edible oils. In the second and third quarters, additional supply partly offset the shortage and helped narrow the price gap.

At the same time, sunflower oil remains closely linked to the other major edible oils. Its correlation coefficient with soybean oil is estimated at 0.85–0.90, while the correlation with palm oil stands at 0.75–0.80, reflecting the high degree of substitution between these products on the global market.

Soybean oil fell from a local high of around $1,180/t in February to about $1,090/t in September. Palm oil has shown lower volatility in recent months and has mostly traded in a $920–960/t range, limiting further upside in other edible oil prices.

As a result, the future direction of sunflower oil prices will depend not only on its own supply-demand balance but also on developments in soybean and palm oil markets. Higher global supply has already eased the shortage factor, while strong substitution among the major edible oils continues to keep their prices closely linked.

Tags: sunflower oil, soybean oil, prices, global market