StatCan forecasts record increase in canola planting area in Canada

Statistics Canada (StatCan) has significantly revised its estimates for planted areas of major agricultural crops in Canada for the 2026/27 marketing year, increasing forecasts for oilseeds while reducing those for grains and pulses.

The canola planted area estimate was unexpectedly raised to a record level due to a sharp decline in wheat acreage, despite spring delays in seeding operations. Farmers believe that the launch of new biofuel production capacity will increase demand for rapeseed, reducing the market’s dependence on Canadian canola exports to China.

According to StatCan, canola acreage is expected to increase by 8.4% year-on-year to a record 23.4 million acres. However, production is projected to remain at last year’s level of 22 million tonnes (compared with 17.8 million tonnes in the MY 2024/25), due to lower yields.

Wheat acreage is forecast to decline by 5.9% to 25.33 million acres, including a 3.9% decrease in spring wheat to 18.067 million acres and a 10.3% drop in durum wheat to 5.86 million acres. Total wheat production is expected to be 6–10% lower than last year’s record and will amount to 35–36 million tonnes.

At the same time, planted areas for several crops are expected to increase compared with last year, including:

• grain corn: +4.8% to 4.0 million acres
• soybeans: +3.1% to 6.0 million acres
• barley: +9.3% to 6.7 million acres

Conversely, acreage is expected to decline for:

• oats: −15.1% to 2.5 million acres
• peas: −13.7% to 3.0 million acres
• lentils: −10.9% to 3.9 million acres

On the ICE exchange in Winnipeg, July canola futures rose 0.7% yesterday to CAD 741/t (USD 521/t), while November contracts fell 1.2% to CAD 735/t (down 6.8% month-on-month). The decline came amid higher planting forecasts and favourable weather conditions expected in Canada over the coming week.

Tags: pea, corn, soybean, Canada, wheat, rapeseed, sown area