Grain exports are getting harder, but Russia more than doubles wheat export duty

Russia will more than double its wheat export duty for August 19–25, raising it from RUB 326.6 to RUB 721.1 per ton. The corn export duty will increase from RUB 105 to RUB 284 per ton, while the barley duty will remain at zero. The increase comes as Russia’s ability to export grain through its key Black Sea and Azov routes has been significantly reduced.

Russia’s grain export problems intensified further in August following new attacks on Novorossiysk, its main Black Sea grain export hub. Damage and disruptions to port infrastructure forced all three major grain terminals — NKHP, NZT and KSK — to halt operations, while rail deliveries of grain to the terminals were restricted. This further reduced Russia’s ability to compensate for lost shipments through the Sea of Azov, while quickly redirecting large volumes to the Baltic and other routes is not feasible.

The situation is particularly challenging as the new crop enters the market just as export logistics face severe constraints. This is increasing domestic grain supply and putting pressure on purchase prices, while farmers continue to face high production, storage and transportation costs.

The export duty is calculated automatically under the existing formula and does not effectively reflect current constraints on physical grain shipments. Its sharp increase therefore adds further pressure on export margins and domestic prices. As a result, Russia’s grain market is facing a combination of rising new-crop supply, shrinking export capacity and a higher fiscal burden on wheat exports.

Tags: export, grain, wheat, restrictions, Russia