Soybean prices at Chinese ports fall amid high inventories

Imported soybean prices in China declined over the past week amid falling futures and substantial domestic inventories. According to Fastmarkets, the lowest-priced soybean offer on a CFR China basis, which remained Brazilian-origin soybeans, stood at $580/t as of October 22, compared with $587/t a week earlier. The decline occurred despite a slight increase in physical market premiums.

The premium for Brazilian soybeans for November delivery increased from $3.10 to $3.15 per bushel over futures. However, the decline in Chicago futures outweighed the higher premium, pushing down outright prices for Chinese importers. Meanwhile, inventories of imported soybeans and soybean meal in China remain above both year-earlier levels and the three-year average.

Despite substantial inventories, Chinese buyers continue to actively purchase US soybeans. According to Fastmarkets, China has bought around 16.6–17 mln tons of US soybeans since early July, with shipments scheduled between October 2026 and March 2027. This means the country has fulfilled nearly 70% of its commitment to purchase 25 mln tons of US soybeans.

At least 20 soybean cargoes were reported purchased during the week, compared with 30 a week earlier. Four of these cargoes were scheduled for shipment from the US, although market participants reported possible additional deals involving state-owned COFCO. Meanwhile, the USDA reported sales of nearly 1 mln tons of US soybeans to China through its daily export sales reporting system. Some October shipments from the US are being redirected through Gulf ports rather than Pacific Northwest ports.

Further import growth could be constrained by weak crushing profitability and substantial feedstock inventories. According to Fastmarkets, near-term crushing margins for imported US and Brazilian soybeans in China remain negative. High soybean and soybean meal stocks are limiting the need for additional purchases, while competition among suppliers and declining futures continue to influence prices. Meanwhile, state-owned buyers’ activity in the US market is supporting international soybean trade.

Tags: China, soybean