South Africa’s corn plantings could fall to lowest level since 2019 amid El Niño risks

South African farmers plan to reduce corn plantings in 2027 to their lowest level in seven years due to rising production costs and the threat of an El Niño-related drought. According to the country’s Crop Estimates Committee (CEC), the area planted to corn could decline by 12.4% year on year to 2.4 mln ha. This would also be approximately 10% below the five-year average.

The largest reduction is expected in white corn, a staple food in South Africa and neighboring countries. Farmers plan to cut white corn plantings by 18.2%. Meanwhile, the area devoted to yellow corn, mainly used in animal feed production, could decline by 3.1%. The bulk of the reduction will therefore affect the food corn segment.

One of the main reasons behind the revised planting intentions is the sharp increase in key agricultural input costs, particularly mineral fertilizers and fuel. Higher prices are linked to conflict-related risks in the Middle East, which are affecting global energy and agricultural input markets. Forecasts of dry conditions during the summer months due to a possible El Niño event are adding further uncertainty.

The reduction in planted area could follow a record corn harvest in 2026. According to the latest CEC estimate, South Africa’s corn production could reach 17.69 mln tons this year, up 6.25% from the previous season. However, farmers’ planting intentions for 2027 point to a potential decline in the country’s production capacity, particularly if reduced acreage is accompanied by unfavorable weather conditions.

Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa, warned that drought risks could accelerate food inflation by the end of the first quarter of 2027. This could also affect the country’s interest rate policy. The South African Reserve Bank has already indicated its readiness to take action to prevent rising fuel and food prices from causing a sustained increase in inflation expectations.

Tags: corn, South Africa