South Africa expects lowest wheat crop in eight years due to drought and reduced plantings

South Africa’s winter wheat production in 2026/27 MY could fall to 1.8 mln tons, down 8% from the previous season and the lowest level in eight years. The weaker outlook reflects reduced planting area and dry conditions in the country’s key wheat-producing region.

According to the updated estimate from the Crop Estimates Committee (CEC), wheat plantings stand at 479.5 thsd ha, down 7% year on year and the lowest level in 13 years. The preliminary estimate had pointed to an even sharper decline to 473.9 thsd ha.

Most of the reduction occurred in the Western Cape, which accounts for around two-thirds of South Africa’s wheat area. Wheat production in the region is predominantly rainfed, making crops particularly vulnerable to the prolonged moisture deficit.

High production costs have also contributed to the reduction in plantings. Fertiliser accounts for around 35% of input costs for a typical wheat farmer, while fuel represents another 13%. Rising input costs combined with relatively low wheat prices at planting increased financial pressure on farmers.

The combination of smaller planted area and adverse weather has weakened South Africa’s wheat crop outlook. Further production prospects will largely depend on weather conditions in the Western Cape, where the crop is currently assessed to be in poor condition.

Tags: weather conditions, wheat, drought, South Africa, planting area