Shift of Russian grain exports to northern ports raises logistics costs by $18–25 per ton

The rerouting of Russian grain exports from Black Sea ports to northern shipping routes has significantly increased transportation costs. In particular, grain shipments via Murmansk cost exporters an additional $18–25 per ton compared with traditional southern routes. For a 40 thsd ton cargo, the extra expense amounts to $720 thsd–1 mln, reducing the competitiveness of Russian grain on the global market.

The need for alternative routes emerged following a sharp decline in shipments through Russia’s southern ports. In October 2026, grain handling at Novorossiysk plunged to 59.6 thsd tons from 1.7 mln tons a year earlier. During the first 20 days of October, total seaborne grain exports fell by 75%, from 4.515 mln to 1.135 mln tons. Wheat shipments declined fourfold to 1 mln tons, while barley exports dropped 5.7 times to 61 thsd tons.

Amid restrictions in the Black Sea, Russian exporters increased their use of Baltic ports. Combined grain handling through St. Petersburg, Ust-Luga and Vysotsk rose elevenfold to 875 thsd tons. However, even this increase failed to offset the decline in shipments through southern ports. Export destinations also narrowed, with the number of importing countries falling from 29 to 15 and the number of wheat exporters declining from 46 to 25. Shipments to Egypt dropped approximately threefold, while deliveries to Turkey fell nearly sevenfold.

Export logistics disruptions are putting additional pressure on Russia’s domestic grain and oilseed markets. Grain storage facilities in southern regions are reportedly operating at 88–91% capacity, while long-term storage costs may reach RUB 1,700 per ton ($21 per ton). According to the cited estimates, feed wheat prices have fallen by 39.1% to RUB 7,490 per ton ($94 per ton), while sunflower seed prices have declined by 38.6%. Farmers’ losses are estimated at RUB 4,600–5,000 per ton ($58–63 per ton) of grain and more than RUB 15,000 per ton ($188 per ton) of sunflower seed.

To support exports, Russian authorities have allocated RUB 10 bln ($125 mln) in railway transportation subsidies and suspended export duties until the end of December 2026. However, these measures do not address port infrastructure constraints or the additional costs associated with alternative shipping routes. Rising logistics expenses, combined with falling domestic prices, are reducing farmers’ revenues, complicating production financing and creating risks for grain and oilseed crops in 2027.

Tags: Russia, export, grain, agricultural products