Sharp decline in Brazilian real boosts competitiveness of soybean meal exports

Brazilian soybean meal export prices recorded their steepest daily decline since mid-April on October 26, following a sharp depreciation of the national currency after the presidential election. According to S&P Global Platts, soybean meal prices for December shipment fell by $14.22/t to $384.92/t FOB Paranaguá. This was the lowest level since August 24, 2026.

The main driver was the sharp depreciation of the Brazilian real following the reelection of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva on October 25. Amid uncertainty over the country’s future fiscal policy, the US dollar surged more than 10% against the real during trading on October 26. This made Brazilian products more competitive in international markets, while soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) declined by nearly 2%.

The weakening real also encouraged Brazilian farmers to increase soybean sales. According to market participants, producers sold around 800 thsd tons of old- and new-crop soybeans on October 26 alone. By comparison, approximately the same volume had been sold over the entire previous week. Meanwhile, domestic soybean prices rose by about BRL 5 per bag, making sales more attractive for farmers.

Despite the decline in export prices, traders do not expect significant changes in Brazilian soybean meal shipments for now. According to S&P Global Energy CERA analysts, Brazil’s soybean meal exports are projected at 26.5 mln tons in the MY 2025/26 and could increase to 28 mln tons in 2026/27. Brazil remains the world’s second-largest soybean meal exporter after Argentina.

According to preliminary Brazilian foreign trade data, the country exported 1.1 mln tons of soybean meal during the first 11 working days of October. Average daily shipment volumes increased by 19% week on week and 3% year on year. If this pace continues through the end of the month, October exports could reach around 2.3 mln tons, compared with the previous forecast of 2.2 mln tons.

Tags: Brazil, oilseeds, soybean meal