Russian wheat output forecast at over 80mn t in 2022-23

Russian wheat production in the 2022-23 marketing year could exceed 80mn t to hit its third-highest to date amid favourable weather conditions and an expected increase in acreages.

The country’s winter and spring wheat output next season (July 2022-June 2023) — excluding that from the disputed region of Crimea, annexed from Ukraine in 2014 — is projected at 80.58mn t, according to initial estimates from Argus agricultural analytics arm Agritel. This would be up by about 5mn t on the year but nearly 5mn t below a historic high from 2019-20 (see chart).

Overall harvested wheat acreage is expected to reach 27.7mn hectares (ha) next year, about 4pc higher than in 2021-22, with 15.6mn ha coming from winter crop.

While winter wheat sown areas are projected lower than this year, favourable weather conditions during the planting stage of next year’s crop should prevent significant surface losses at harvest. Dry conditions during the planting stage last year resulted in a much higher difference between sown and harvested areas than long-term averages.

A smaller surface abandonment at harvest next year, paired with higher yields, suggests winter wheat production could total 61.25mn t in 2022-23, much higher than the 55.12mn t collected this year.

And unlike in neighbouring Ukraine, Russia’s strong fertiliser production and protective measures against exports of product safeguarded its farmers from any severe impacts from rising fertiliser prices and supply shortages globally. In comparison, Agritel expects Ukrainian wheat production to fall by 5mn t to 27.74mn t next year, partly as a result of lower fertiliser use. But Russian farmers’ production margins could decline as domestic fertiliser prices are much higher on the year.

Yields and acreages for spring wheat — which will be sown only in spring 2022 — are currently projected to be in line with long-term averages but about 4pc lower on the year. This implies spring wheat production could total 19.94mn t next year, edging down from 20.39mn t this year.

Argus Media

Tags: Russia, grain, forecast