Russian linseed is being disguised as Kazakh to enter the EU

Russia may be circumventing the European Union’s prohibitive tariff on linseed by re-exporting it through Kazakhstan as a product of Kazakh origin. The evidence includes an abnormal increase in Kazakhstan’s exports, discrepancies in its supply balance and data from participants in the oilseed market.

In the first 11 months of the 2025/26 marketing year, Kazakhstan exported a record 1.22 million tonnes of linseed, 2.42 times more than in the same period of the previous season. The largest buyers were China, accounting for 39.7%, and Belgium, with 27.9%. At the same time, shipments to Belgium increased to 341,200 tonnes, exports to Poland reached 106,200 tonnes, while supplies to the Netherlands increased 6.4-fold.

The situation in the EU market is particularly telling. According to the DG AGRI TAXUD Customs Surveillance System, the European Union imported 686,800 tonnes of linseed from July 2025 to June 2026, up 16.8% year-on-year. Kazakhstan accounted for 72.5%, or 497,800 tonnes, of these imports. At the same time, imports of Kazakh linseed increased by 88%, while direct supplies from Russia fell by 50%.

But the main question is where Kazakhstan got all this linseed. Official stocks stood at 484,000 tonnes as of July 1, 2026. However, after accounting for the harvest, officially reported imports, exports and domestic consumption, the calculated carryover stocks should have been only 118,000–254,000 tonnes. This leaves a gap of 230,000–366,000 tonnes, which expert Oleg Ilyin links to possible additional supplies of Russian linseed.

The incentive for such a scheme is clear. Since 2026, the EU has imposed a 50% tariff on Russian linseed, while Russia has additionally introduced a 10% export duty. As a result, direct shipments of Russian linseed to the EU are effectively subject to 60% in combined duties. According to market sources, at a Kazakh linseed price of around $450–455/t FCA, a Russian supplier selling the product as Kazakh-origin linseed could earn up to $150/t in additional margin.

Market participants claim that Russian linseed is already being re-exported to the EU through Kazakhstan, although no official case specifically concerning this scheme has been registered so far. The product could potentially be transported by rail through Russia to Baltic ports and then shipped to Belgium. Suspicions are further strengthened by the fact that Russia’s regions bordering Kazakhstan harvested around 1 million tonnes of oilseed linseed in 2025, creating a significant supply base directly near the Kazakh border.

The linseed case could become another example of Russian products attempting to enter the European market through neighboring countries. Similar schemes have previously been identified involving other commodities, including birch plywood and sunflower oil. If the allegations concerning linseed are confirmed, Kazakhstan could effectively become a transit link for circumventing European tariffs, allowing Russian producers to access the EU’s premium market despite trade restrictions.

Tags: Russia, Kazakhstan, EU, duties, restrictions