Russian grain exports via the Caspian Sea constrained by small vessels and seasonal restrictions

The Caspian route remains limited for Russian grain exports due to low vessel capacity, shallow waters, and seasonal navigation restrictions. The route mainly relies on river-sea vessels with a capacity of 3–4 thsd tons, compared to vessels carrying around 30 thsd tons through Novorossiysk. In winter, shipping activity in the Caspian Sea declines by 60–70%, while a shortage of vessels further restricts exports. Against this backdrop, freight rates have increased by approximately 25% year-on-year.

Despite logistical challenges, grain shipments via the Caspian route are increasing. In the first quarter of 2026, grain shipments through the ports of Astrakhan and Olya reached 732.8 thsd tons. Astrakhan has an annual handling capacity of 3.5 mln tons, while Olya can handle 0.9 mln tons. Including Makhachkala and river shipments, the corridor’s total potential capacity is estimated at 10–13 mln tons per year.

Meanwhile, the Caspian Sea’s geographical limitations complicate the redirection of Russian grain exports. The route does not provide direct access to Egypt and other Middle Eastern markets, which previously accounted for around 37% of Russian wheat purchases. Iran remains the main buyer along the Caspian route, importing 531 thsd tons of corn, 467 thsd tons of barley, and 192 thsd tons of wheat from July to September.

Tags: Russia, export, grain