Russian grain exports enter the new season with fresh bottlenecks

Russia is entering the new grain marketing season with a significantly weakened export infrastructure. Several key terminals in the Azov-Black Sea basin — the country’s main grain export corridor — are operating under restrictions or remain idle. The disruptions come just as new-crop grain supplies are reaching the market, increasing risks for both exports and the domestic market.

According to market participants, the temporary shutdown of the grain terminal in Taman has removed around 6 mln tons of annual handling capacity. In addition, restrictions continue to affect two of Novorossiysk’s largest deep-water grain terminals, which handle a substantial share of Russia’s seaborne grain exports.

Redirecting these volumes to alternative routes will be difficult. Analysts estimate that Baltic ports account for only about 4% of Russia’s seaborne grain exports, while Caspian ports handle around 6%. Their terminal capacity and rail infrastructure are insufficient to offset the reduced throughput of the Azov-Black Sea ports.

Logistics costs are also rising. Market estimates suggest that trucking grain from the Rostov region to Novorossiysk now costs nearly twice as much as before, while the railway network cannot quickly absorb additional cargo volumes. The situation is particularly challenging for grain producers in southern Russia, who traditionally rely on Azov and Black Sea ports.

The logistical disruptions have already prompted analysts to revise export forecasts. SovEcon has cut its 2026/27 Russian wheat export forecast by 1.9 mln tons to 44.6 mln tons, taking into account both terminal disruptions and shipping restrictions in the Sea of Azov. Meanwhile, IKAR estimates Russia’s wheat export potential at 44.5 mln tons.

At the same time, the domestic market is coming under increasing pressure as large volumes of new-crop grain arrive while export capacity remains constrained. According to analysts, Russian wheat prices have been falling by 500–1,000 rubles per ton each week, while only large agricultural holdings have sufficient storage capacity to delay sales until market conditions improve.

Analysts warn that if the operation of key export terminals is not restored soon, Russia could face not only lower export volumes but also a continued buildup of grain stocks on the domestic market. This would put additional downward pressure on domestic prices and further weaken farmers’ financial position during the peak harvest period.

Tags: Russia, export, grain, wheat