Russian analysts lowered the forecast of wheat exports to a three-year low

Russian SovEcon lowered the forecast of wheat exports from the country in 2024/25 MY to 45.9 mln tonnes. A month ago, the exports were estimated at 47.6 mln tonnes. This is stated in the company’s report.

According to the agency, this is the lowest export figure since 2021/22 MY. Back then, Russia exported 33.4 mln tonnes of wheat. The forecast was reduced due to deteriorating crop forecasts and export restrictions.

“Another restriction for Russian exports may be the increase in the export duty on wheat. The duty rate on wheat exports will be 2228 rubles per tonne starting from October 30, compared to 1246 rubles per tonne a month earlier. In the coming weeks, it will continue to grow amid recommendations from officials to raise export prices,” the report said.

According to analysts, the restriction of export sales of Russian wheat by “foreign intermediaries” will lead to the curtailment of business of a significant part of small and medium-sized traders who organize deliveries within the country.

Also, the slowdown in shipments will be affected by the seasonal deterioration of the weather in the Black Sea since November and the closure of river navigation, SovEcon added.

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Tags: Russia, export, wheat