Russia-Ukraine war increasingly shifts toward economic attrition

The Russia-Ukraine war is increasingly shifting toward economic attrition as both sides expand the range of targets beyond military infrastructure. Industrial facilities, ports, transport hubs, warehouses, vessels, oil infrastructure and other assets critical to economic activity are coming under attack, The New York Times. reports.

Russian attacks on Ukraine are increasingly affecting infrastructure that supports the production, storage and movement of goods. Targets include railway and port networks, border crossings, grain storage facilities, commercial vessels, supermarket warehouses and, in recent days, data centers and internet service provider infrastructure. According to Ukraine’s Ministry of Digital Transformation, internet access problems affected about 100,000 households following the Sept. 23 strikes. At the same time, Ukrainian strikes have significantly disrupted Russia’s grain and vegetable oil exports through the Black Sea, which have come close to a standstill. The Azov-Black Sea port basin handled about 80% of Russia’s grain exports and 50–60% of its vegetable oil exports, and a significant share of these flows has had to seek alternative routes following the attacks.

Ukrainian strikes have also affected Russia’s domestic logistics. Logistics centers operated by Russia’s largest online marketplaces, Wildberries and Ozon, have come under attack, affecting the storage, movement and delivery of goods to consumers and potentially causing financial losses for companies and sellers. Russian oil refineries, oil storage facilities and port infrastructure remain another area of attacks. According to the OSW, following damage to infrastructure and increased risks to shipping, Russia’s crude oil exports through Black Sea ports fell to about 310,000 barrels per day in August, from around 900,000 bpd in June.

For Ukraine, the economic impact of the latest wave of attacks is also intensifying. On Sept. 24, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development cut its forecast for Ukrainian GDP growth in 2026 from 2.2% to 1.5%. Ukraine’s Economy Ministry estimates potential losses from the current wave of attacks through the end of the year at about $10 billion, including not only physical destruction but also forced downtime, lost profits and disruptions to transport routes.

As a result, the economic dimension of the war is becoming increasingly significant for both sides. Russia is seeking to constrain Ukraine’s production, transport and export capacity while also disrupting the supply of goods and the functioning of civilian infrastructure. Ukraine, in turn, is acting symmetrically by striking Russian ports, shipping, grain infrastructure and logistics centers that support domestic trade. The expansion of Russian attacks on digital infrastructure adds another dimension to the confrontation — the functioning of the internet and related economic and civilian services.

Tags: Ukraine, Russia, war