Kenya’s corn production to fall 39% due to severe drought

Kenya’s corn production could decline to 2.2 mln tons in the MY 2026/27, 39% below the five-year average. According to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), the sharp decline is attributed to an exceptionally severe El Niño-induced drought that affected the country’s main grain-producing regions during June–August 2026. In terms of the deviation from the five-year average, this represents the largest reduction in Kenya’s corn production in the past 50 years.

The northern Rift Valley and western counties, which account for a significant share of Kenya’s corn production, were hit hardest by the rainfall deficit. Major crop losses were recorded in Trans Nzoia, Uasin Gishu, Bungoma and Nakuru counties. These regions account for 14%, 10%, 7% and 6% of the country’s total corn production, respectively. In some areas, rainfall deficits exceeded 300 mm during June–August, causing a critical depletion of soil moisture and widespread crop failure.

Satellite monitoring confirmed a significant deterioration in corn crop conditions during the growing season. Crops developed favorably in April and May, but vegetation indicators began declining rapidly in early June. By early July, large areas of corn in the main grain-producing regions had been severely affected by drought. According to the USDA, crops in some fields failed completely, with no possibility of recovery even if weather conditions improved.

Conditions were particularly severe in Uasin Gishu county, where nearly 60% of agricultural land experienced the highest drought severity category, D4, during June–August. This was the highest proportion recorded in the region. By comparison, around 40% of cropland was affected by D4 drought during the severe 2009 drought, compared with approximately 10% in 2015. Meanwhile, areas south and east of Kenya’s main grain-producing belt did not experience such extreme rainfall deficits.

The sharp decline in corn production creates additional risks for food security in Kenya, where corn is one of the main staple foods. The loss of a significant share of the harvest in key agricultural regions could increase the country’s dependence on imported grain and raise demand for foreign supplies. Further developments in the domestic market will depend on actual corn harvest volumes, available stocks and the country’s ability to offset the production shortfall through imports.

Tags: corn, Kenya