Russia starts the 2026/27 wheat season with a fuel panic. Is a panic real? 

UkrAgroConsult

Article author:

Tetyana Shevel

Grain and oilseed market analyst UkrAgroConsult

Russia’s 2026 wheat crop forecasts were based on answers to the usual questions:

• whether 2025 autumn planting were completed successfully and what are winter wheat conditions. The answers were positive. Winter wheat condition was good to excellent in 2026 March-April, with minimal winterkill. Moreover, in regions located closer to the sea ports, wheat yields are expected to exceed last year’s levels.
• the 2026 spring wheat planting: prolonged rainfall delayed fieldwork and forced farmers to reduce spring wheat areas.
• export demand estimations in the 2025/26 season. The answer was Russia remains the world’s largest wheat exporter. Preliminary wheat exports estimates were around 45 M mt compared with 43.3 M mt in 2024/25.

However, in May 2026, a new factor appeared. Unlike weather or acreage, this factor is physical, accumulative and affects the entire agricultural supply chain.

The question is no longer only about crop size. It is increasingly about whether the crop can move through the system efficiently.

Fuel shortage. Lower wheat crop or just a more expensive crop?

Russian analysts continue to assure the global market that the 2026 harvest will be collected successfully and that farmers face no fuel shortages. According to the official narrative, slower harvesting reflects only the delayed spring planting campaign, while farms secured enough diesel in advance to complete harvesting. Energy experts largely agree that Russian fuel stocks are still sufficient.

The real problem is now timely wheat delivery and rising logistics costs.

Most farms traditionally purchase fuel before harvest. However, not every producer fully covers seasonal demand months in advance. In addition, late-season crops often require extra field operations.

Outlook for 2026/27

Farmers across southern Russia have now started harvesting wheat and barley. Domestic ex-farm prices are falling rapidly under pressure from several factors

• larger wheat supplies are expected in southern export-oriented regions because of better yields;
• logistics costs continue to rise alongside fuel prices;
• wheat export duties returned from early July, increasing the costs throughout the supply chain;
• exporters face higher risks of failing to deliver wheat on schedule because of logistics disruptions inside Russia.

At the same time, Russian exporters must compete with strong wheat crops elsewhere in the Black Sea region.

Romania and Bulgaria are entering the new season with good production prospects and may increasingly position themselves as reliable wheat suppliers.

Ukraine, despite the ongoing war, continues to demonstrate strong export potential. After several years of operating under wartime conditions, Ukrainian exporters developed flexible logistics systems and repeatedly demonstrated their ability to execute grain contracts on time.

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Tags: crop forecast, Russia, wheat