Russia faces up to 30 mln tons of unsold grain as export routes remain constrained

Russia could be left with 20–30 mln tons of grain that cannot be sold in the current season because of export disruptions. The main problem is reduced capacity at Azov and Black Sea ports, which has sharply constrained the country’s traditional grain export routes.

According to ProZerno, with a crop of around 140 mln tons, Russia’s grain export potential is estimated at 59 mln tons. Without a recovery in southern port operations, however, exports may reach only around 39 mln tons, while carryover stocks could rise to 34.8 mln tons by the end of the year.

The grain surplus is already weighing heavily on domestic prices. In southern Russia, grain prices have fallen to around 4,000–5,000 rubles/t, roughly half the level seen a few months ago, forcing some farmers to sell at a loss.

The oilseed sector is also facing mounting pressure. Around 4–5 mln tons of new-crop sunflower seed still need to find a market, while meal exports are also constrained and domestic crushing capacity is insufficient to quickly absorb the entire volume.

Against this backdrop, Russia is already discussing a possible reduction in planted area for the 2027 crop. Market participants warn that without an export recovery, large carryover stocks could spill into the next season, intensify price pressure and increase the risk of farm bankruptcies.

Tags: grain, logistics, Russia, export