Russia expands grain exports via the Baltic and Caspian routes

Amid disruptions to its traditional southern export routes, Russian exporters are making greater use of the Baltic and Caspian basins. In the first ten days of September, the largest volumes among alternative ports were handled by Ust-Luga and Vysotsk, while on the Caspian side the main flows went through Astrakhan and Makhachkala. Astrakhan shipped 87.5 thsd tons of grain and Makhachkala 14.2 thsd tons, with Iran remaining the main destination.

The Baltic route had already been increasing grain handling before the sharp deterioration in operations at southern ports. In the first half of 2026, Russian Baltic ports handled about 1.2 mln tons of grain, compared with 865 thsd tons a year earlier. Vysotsk increased throughput to 694 thsd tons, the Big Port of St. Petersburg handled 105 thsd tons, while Ust-Luga processed around 260 thsd tons.

Following the completion of reconstruction at the Gorodets hydropower facility, the potential for additional grain shipments from the Middle and Upper Volga regions via Vysotsk is estimated at up to 500 thsd tons per year. At the same time, one of the key constraints on the Baltic route is the lack of road access to the Vysotsk and Ust-Luga terminals, making them heavily dependent on rail logistics.

The role of the Caspian route is expanding even faster. In January–July, the ports of Astrakhan and Olya increased total cargo turnover by 79% y/y to 4.2 mln tons, of which around 1.9 mln tons was grain. In the first quarter alone, exports of grain and processed grain products from the region reached 732.8 thsd tons, up 61% y/y.

Russia is also seeking to broaden the geography of Caspian shipments. Russia and Uzbekistan are considering supplies of around 500 thsd tons of wheat through Caspian ports, while the grain handling potential of Russia’s Caspian basin is estimated at up to 10 mln tons per year. However, current flows remain largely focused on Iran, limiting the route’s ability to quickly redirect large export volumes to other markets.

The Baltic and Caspian routes are therefore becoming increasingly important for Russian grain exports, but they are not yet able to fully replace southern logistics. Baltic terminals have limited grain capacity and higher transport costs from major producing regions, while the Caspian route is expanding rapidly but serves a much narrower range of destinations. In the near term, these routes are more likely to compensate for part of the lost southern capacity than become a full-scale alternative to the Azov-Black Sea basin.

Tags: Russia, export, grain