Russia complicates Kazakh grain transit to the EU amid shift in its own export routes

Kazakhstan’s grain exporters are facing increasing logistics restrictions on shipments transiting through russia to the European Union. In October 2026, Russian Railways rejected applications for cargo transportation to Estonia, citing insufficient railway capacity. Although there is no official ban on the transit of Kazakh agricultural products, these shipments are effectively losing priority.

The situation has been complicated by russia’s shift of grain exports from the Black Sea to alternative routes via the Baltic Sea, Caspian Sea, and Far East. This has intensified competition for railway and port capacity, particularly at the Estonian ports of Sillamäe and Muuga. Higher transit tariffs at Baltic and Finnish border crossings have added further pressure. Kazakhstan traditionally uses these routes to export linseed and durum wheat and had planned to increase shipments of high-protein wheat during the current season.

The alternative Trans-Caspian route through Azerbaijan and Georgia cannot yet fully replace transit through russia. Transportation costs along this corridor are approximately twice as high, while capacity at Georgia’s Poti port remains limited. As a result, the route is economically viable mainly for higher-value commodities, including linseed and high-protein wheat.

Kazakhstan’s railway operator is currently negotiating with Russian Railways to restore stable transit operations. However, the National Association of Grain Exporters KazGrain is concerned that limited transit quotas could be introduced instead of a full resumption of shipments. Additional difficulties have emerged on the Iranian route, where freight rates between Aktau and Iran have surged from $17/t to $95/t. Combined with the approximately 20% appreciation of the Kazakh tenge over the past year, this has weakened the competitiveness of Kazakh barley.

According to KazGrain, the 2026/27 season could be more challenging for Kazakhstan’s grain exporters due to a smaller harvest, high logistics costs, currency factors, and competition from Russian grain. Afghanistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and China are expected to remain the main export markets. In the longer term, the association recommends expanding domestic grain processing to increase exports of higher-value products and reduce dependence on external transit routes.

Tags: Russia, Kazakhstan, export, grain, EU, wheat, rail transportation