Rising rapeseed supplies from Canada, Australia put pressure on global prices

The completion of Canada’s canola harvest, higher production forecasts for Australia and Russia, and strong Ukrainian rapeseed exports are increasing pressure on the global oilseed market. Despite support from elevated crude oil prices and biofuel demand, Canadian futures have declined. Over the past week, November canola futures in Winnipeg fell by 0.9% to CAD 780/t ($556/t), bringing their monthly decline to 3.8%.

Canada’s canola harvest is nearing completion. As of October 20, harvesting was 96% complete in Saskatchewan, 92% in Manitoba and 86% in Alberta. Meanwhile, export demand remains strong. According to the Canadian Grain Commission, canola exports increased by 35.9% week-on-week during October 11–18 to 215.1 thsd tons. Since the beginning of the MY 2026/27 on August 1, Canada has exported 1.625 mln tons of canola, up 50.5% from the same period last season.

In Australia, favorable weather conditions and sufficient rainfall are supporting prospects for a record canola crop in the MY 2026/27. Production estimates range from 7.3 mln tons according to ABARES to 7.8 mln tons according to USDA. Meanwhile, Lachstock forecasts 8 mln tons and Rabobank expects 8.1 mln tons, exceeding the previous record of 7.6 mln tons set in the 2022/23 season. Amid improving trade conditions, Chinese importers have already purchased around 1 mln tons of Australian canola for delivery in early 2027 at prices of $695–705/t C&F.

Ukraine also continues to maintain an active pace of rapeseed exports. During October 1–22, shipments to foreign markets totaled 284.5 thsd tons, compared with 430 thsd tons in September and 292.6 thsd tons in August. This supports expectations that exports will reach 1.5–2 mln tons in the MY 2026/27, even with restricted operations at Black Sea ports. Export bid prices for Ukrainian rapeseed remain at $475–500/t delivered to Danube ports and $500–520/t delivered to western terminals. Meanwhile, logistics costs have risen to UAH 3,000–3,500/t, adding pressure on domestic purchase prices.

A record rapeseed harvest in Russia is expected to further increase global supplies. According to the Ruseed analytical center, production in 2026 could reach 7.2–7.3 mln tons, up 30.4% from the previous year. Substantial raw material supplies could intensify competition in global rapeseed oil and meal markets. Meanwhile, February rapeseed futures on the Paris-based MATIF exchange rose by 1% over the past week to €552.25/t ($618/t), supported by elevated crude oil prices. However, further increases in rapeseed supplies from major producing countries could limit the potential for additional price gains.

Tags: Australia, Canada, rapeseed