Reduced tropical oil exports will raise prices for their analogues

Oil World (Germany) analysts forecast a 2 million ton decline in palm oil exports from eight major supplier countries in April-September 2020, compared to the same period last year, to 22.12 million tonnes. This will significantly increase prices for all vegetable oils in the next few months.

Although palm oil exports from eight major supplier countries have totaled 11.8 million tonnes since the beginning of this year, compared to 9.62 million tonnes in January-March 2025, analysts predict a reduction in export shipments.

In particular, Indonesia could ship 12.36 million tonnes during this period (compared to 14.12 million tonnes in April-September 2025), and Malaysia could ship 8.25 million tonnes (7.89 million tonnes). Experts predict a slight decline in palm oil production in Indonesia and Malaysia, as well as a significant increase in biodiesel production in Asian countries amid the energy crisis.

At the same time, analysts also note high inventories in Malaysia, which still has the capacity to increase exports.

According to OleoScope, the palm oil price (FOB Malaysia) for May delivery was $1,171.61 per tonne, $19.90 per tonne higher than the previous price of $1,151.71 per tonne on 15 May 2026.

Tags: prices, palm oil