Record oilseed supply pressures vegetable oil prices

USDA raised its forecast for global oilseed production in 2026/27 by 2.44 mln tons to a record 723.46 mln tons. This is 22.42 mln tons above the previous season. The forecast for global vegetable oil production was also increased by 0.42 mln tons to a record 245.37 mln tons.

At the same time, higher crude oil prices have so far provided limited support to vegetable oil markets. November Brent futures rose 11.2% over the week to $109/barrel and gained 22% over the month. Despite this, November palm oil futures in Malaysia fell 1.9% over seven days to 4,883 ringgit/t, or around $1,200/t.

December soybean oil futures in Chicago declined 0.4% over the week to $1,550/t, although they remain 35% above last year’s level. In Brazil, spot soybean oil prices increased by $10/t to $1,210–1,220/t FOB, while prices in China remained around $1,360–1,370/t.

Sunflower oil prices continued to decline. In India, demand prices fell by $10/t over the week to $1,430/t CIF Mumbai amid increased supply from the Black Sea region. In Ukraine, demand prices dropped by around $100/t to $1,100–1,120/t delivered to Danube ports due to higher risks for port logistics and rising freight costs.

European rapeseed oil also fell by $10–20/t to $1,435–1,440/t FOB Netherlands. Pressure is being reinforced by cheaper Ukrainian rapeseed oil, which declined to $1,190–1,200/t DAP Ukraine-Poland border. Market participants expect seasonal growth in oilseed supply to continue weighing on vegetable oil prices.

Tags: rapeseed oil, global market, sunflower oil, vegetable oils, soybean oil, prices, oilseeds, edible oils