Rapeseed prices in Ukraine remain under pressure from weak export demand

Rapeseed prices in Ukraine remain under pressure from declining global futures and weak export demand. A sharp drop in Canadian canola prices has added to the bearish sentiment, dragging the European rapeseed market lower.

November canola futures in Winnipeg fell 6.5% over two trading sessions to CAD 770/t ($555.6/t). The market reacted to concerns that the US could impose tariffs on Canadian canola oil, potentially reducing domestic demand for canola in Canada.

Following canola, November rapeseed futures on Paris MATIF fell 3.1% to €522/t ($609/t). The market largely ignored a lower EU rapeseed crop forecast. The recovery of river logistics in Europe is also adding pressure by allowing more previously contracted rapeseed to reach processing plants.

In Ukraine, export bids for rapeseed stand at $470–490/t, or UAH 21,000–22,000/t, at Danube ports, and $460–470/t, or UAH 21,500–22,500/t, delivered to terminals on the western border. Processors are offering around UAH 20,000–21,500/t delivered for rapeseed with 44% oil content.

Growing rapeseed supplies are adding pressure to the domestic market, while logistics problems affecting exports of rapeseed oil and meal remain unresolved. Transportation costs could rise further in the autumn, with logistics rates expected to increase by 20–30% in September-October as the sunflower seed, soybean and corn harvests gather pace.