Rapeseed and sunflower oil to drive global vegetable oil trade growth in 2026/27

Global vegetable oil exports, including oilseeds on a vegetable oil equivalent basis, could reach a record 141 mln tons in 2026/27, up 2% from the previous season. According to USDA, the main growth will come from rapeseed and sunflower oil and their respective oilseeds.

Rapeseed oil and equivalent exports are forecast to rise by 8% from 2025/26. The strongest export growth is expected from Canada, Russia, Ukraine and Australia, while the US and China are projected to post the largest increases in imports.

Sunflower oil and equivalent trade could grow even faster, rising by 15%. USDA links the increase to larger crops in Ukraine and Russia after two seasons of below-average yields in the Black Sea region. India and China are expected to show the strongest import growth.

Meanwhile, palm and soybean oil are expected to make only a limited contribution to the expansion of global trade. Palm oil exports could decline by 2% due to higher domestic industrial use in Indonesia amid expanding biofuel policies, while soybean oil and equivalent trade is forecast to increase by only 1%.

USDA estimates that around 59% of global vegetable oil consumption in 2026/27 will be supplied through cross-border trade in oils or oilseeds for crushing. This is below the 10-year average of 62%, mainly due to rising domestic palm oil consumption in producing countries.

Tags: sunflower oil, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, global market