Rabobank forecasts adjustment in global pork production in 2026

The global pork market will face mixed dynamics in 2026, with production volumes expected to decline in the second half of the year, Rabobank reported in its quarterly report. Analysts estimate that while supply in major producing countries will remain high in the first half of the year, supply will contract in the second half. One of the key factors will be a reduction in the breeding sow population in China to approximately 39 million heads in 2026 as part of a strategy to restore supply and demand balance.

Meanwhile, in the US and EU, sow population growth will remain limited due to the spread of diseases, high costs, and increased trade uncertainty. Against this backdrop, international pork trade will continue to restructure in 2026. China, which accounted for 45% of global pork imports in 2020, has since significantly reduced that share, with Mexico now positioned as the world’s largest importer. China’s anti-dumping measures against European pork and Mexico’s imposition of supplier quotas could redirect trade flows to alternative destinations.

Tags: pork