Problems with agricultural exports are changing Russia’s crop structure

Problems with grain exports and weak domestic prices could noticeably reshape Russia’s crop structure in 2027. The biggest changes are expected in spring planting, with part of the area under wheat and barley potentially shifting to soybeans, rapeseed, flax and pulses, which currently look more attractive to producers.

Sunflower is likely to retain a large planted area, although further expansion will be limited by crop rotation requirements and weaker purchase prices. Rapeseed and soybeans could gain more ground thanks to domestic processing and demand for oil and meal, while grains remain much more dependent on access to export routes.

Corn is expected to remain concentrated mainly on farms with their own dryers, storage facilities or guaranteed sales channels. In regions far from export terminals, farmers are likely to focus increasingly on crops that can be sold to local processors without incurring high transportation costs.

Wheat remains the most vulnerable crop. Weak exports are leading to grain accumulation on the domestic market and putting pressure on prices, while transportation costs absorb a large share of revenue for farms located far from ports. Already, 32% of surveyed farmers plan to reduce planted area, while another 26% say they are abandoning winter crop sowing, partly due to a lack of funds for fuel, seed and fertilizers.

As a result, the most likely scenario is not a mass withdrawal from wheat, but broader crop diversification. Large farms are expected to reduce their dependence on a single grain crop by combining winter wheat with two or three oilseed or pulse crops. If export problems through the Azov-Black Sea basin persist, this shift could become even more pronounced during the 2027 spring planting campaign.

Tags: Russia, corn, barley, soybean, wheat, sunseed, rapeseed