Possible transit ban through Baltic ports could complicate Russia’s grain export rerouting

Possible restrictions on the transit of Russian grain through ports in the Baltic states could complicate the rerouting of exports away from southern routes. Following disruptions at ports in the Azov-Black Sea basin, some cargo flows have been redirected through the Baltic, with volumes potentially increasing in the coming months.

According to Vladimir Petrichenko, CEO of ProZerno, Russia’s own Baltic ports have annual grain handling capacity of around 8 mln tons. By comparison, the combined capacity of five major ports in the Baltic states is estimated at around 23–25 mln tons per year, making the route a potentially important alternative to southern ports.

Actual volumes of Russian grain moving through Baltic states’ ports remain relatively small. According to Petrichenko, around 100 thsd tons were handled through these ports in August, while volumes totaled approximately 1 mln tons during the entire previous season. However, amid disruptions to southern logistics, the Russian market had expected these flows to increase.

Klaipėda has the largest potential capacity at around 9–10 mln tons per year, followed by Riga at approximately 7.5 mln tons. Ventspils and Liepāja can each handle around 2.5 mln tons, while Muuga in Estonia has capacity of about 2 mln tons per year. Using these ports could partially offset reduced export capacity in the Azov-Black Sea basin.

Meanwhile, Latvia and Lithuania are considering measures to restrict the use of their ports for Russian grain transit. If such restrictions are introduced, Russia would have to rely more heavily on its own Baltic capacity or seek other alternative routes, potentially increasing logistics costs and limiting its ability to quickly reroute grain exports.

Tags: Russia, export, grain, wheat, Latvia, Estonia, ports