Palm oil’s competitiveness in the global market will deteriorate

Growing domestic demand for biofuels, export restrictions, and an expected decline in annual per hectare yields will reduce the competitiveness of palm oil in the global market, according to analysts at Oil World (Germany). This will also be further mitigated by the resumption of soybean oil supplies from Argentina and sunflower oil supplies from Argentina, Russia, Bulgaria, and Ukraine.

Experts predict a sharp decline in export shipments of 2 million tonnes from April to September 2026, compared to the same period last year, to 24.2 million tonnes.

Since the beginning of 2026, Indonesia has exported 6.83 million tonnes of palm oil, compared to 6.09 million tonnes in January-March 2025. Malaysia exported 4.11 million tonnes (3.18 million tonnes), and Thailand exported 0.33 million tonnes (0.03 million tonnes).

In 2025/26, Indonesia shipped 13.81 million tonnes, compared to 12.59 million tonnes in October-March 2024/25. Malaysia shipped 8.34 million tonnes (7.76 million tonnes), and Thailand shipped 0.64 million tonnes (0.08 million tonnes).

In the first half of the current season, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand accounted for 88% of global palm oil exports. However, their share is likely to decline slightly in the April-September period, primarily due to a sharp decline in shipments from Indonesia and Thailand.

Tags: prices, palm oil