Pakistan Unlikely to Import Wheat in the MY 2025/26

Pakistan is unlikely to import wheat during the current marketing year, as a strong planting pace has eased concerns over a significant reduction in wheat acreage, according to a report from the US Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS). Improved sowing progress has helped stabilize expectations for domestic wheat supply.

Earlier assessments had warned that flooding could prevent farmers from preparing land in time for planting, while supply chain disruptions and household stock losses raised fears of seed shortages. However, the FAS noted that coordinated government efforts to ensure the availability of inputs and sufficient supplies of quality seed delivered better-than-expected results.

The Pakistani government has also announced plans to purchase 6.2 million tonnes of wheat from farmers at a minimum support price of $312 per tonne, effectively reversing a two-year policy under which the state did not procure wheat from producers.

According to the FAS, wheat continues to be viewed by farmers as a relatively profitable crop. Most subsistence farmers grow wheat primarily for their own consumption, a practice that persisted even when government procurement was suspended. Pakistan has not imported wheat so far in the current marketing year and is unlikely to do so for the remainder of the season.

Earlier this year, the FAS had projected that Pakistan might import up to 1.5 million tonnes of wheat, after importing just 3,000 tonnes in 2024/25. The agency now expects wheat production to decline from 31.4 million tonnes in 2024/25 to 28.9 million tonnes this year, with ending stocks falling sharply from 4.7 million tonnes to 1.5 million tonnes.

Tags: Pakistan, wheat, imports